Coronavirus

[Aytundra]

Does the coronavirus change the way you go about your day?
Share it here!

[RRM]

Yes, it interests me. So, i combined some stats to see where the USA is currently standing.
Here is a combination of established outcomes from China, Italy, Spain and Germany:

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Corona-outcome-stats-combined.jpg

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As you can see, in the combined outcomes, phase A is the period in which no deaths are recorded.
Phase B represents a very volatile period in which the first deaths are registered, and deaths may outpace recoveries.
In phase C, the death/recovery rate stabilizes with recoveries topping deaths.
Phase D is the period in which the pandemic is under control.

In China, that volatile phase B ended before February 02.
In Italy, that volatile phase ended on February 27
In Spain, that phase ended on March 09
In Germany, that volatility never occurred; maybe they got it somewhat under control already.
Projecting the USA case on the combined stats, we need to wait for the day that the recovery rate starts topping the death rate, to establish when the USA has excited phase B.

[RRM]

And here are the outcomes for the USA, per March 22
It seems very worrying to me that phase B lasts this long in the USA
In Italy, phase B lasted less than one week
The stats for the USA show that after 22 days, the US is still in phase B.

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Corona-outcome-stats-USA.jpg

[RRM]

Corona-outcome-stats-Italy.jpg

[RRM]

I think that outcomes may partially reflect to what extend people got tested.
A high rate may mean that people with milder symptoms simply never got tested.
These untested postive cases will push up the infection rates.
The (accumulated) deaths/recovered rates, (for countries with more than 100 deaths) per March 23:

106 The Netherlands
2.50 USA
2.14 UK
0.90 Switzerland
0.78 Italy
0.68 Spain
0.31 France
0.27 Germany
0.22 Iran
0.04 China
0.03 S. Korea

In the top countries the virus may be spreading rapidly, undetected.
The top 3 are in phase B.
The rest in phase C or D.

[RRM]

When comparing the top 3 to Italy;
Phase B did not even last a week in Italy, compared to already 16 days in The Netherlands,18 days in the UK, and 22 days in the USA.

Corona-outcome-stats-Netherlands.jpg

[RRM]

Corona-outcome-stats-UK.jpg

[dime]

I think trying to do any analysis based on the reported statistics is futile and cannot be trusted.

Each country is testing in varying ways and has different capacities for testing, and probably counting deaths by non-standard criteria. I doubt there's a standardized method followed internationally. Some may be doing randomized sampling tests, others may be testing only severe cases that end up in the hospital; this might explain the differences between countries in the death/recovery rates. Perhaps at least the numbers are comparable around the EU (Netherlands, Germany, Italy, Spain) but I doubt even this to be the case.

[dime]

It definitely affects way of life around here. I've reduced going to the supermarket like once in 1-2 weeks, canceled appointments and trips, work is now full remote (although it already was 90% remote before as well). Basically we're trying to stay home as much as it's possible and go out only when absolutely necessary. The economy is suffering because of the "social distancing", many people are already set to half time work or less = Kurzarbeit in Germany (seems to be standard survival mechanism of companies in times of crisis).

[RRM]

I think trying to do any analysis based on the reported statistics is futile and cannot be trusted.

Similar to findings in medical scientific studies, these statistics also contain a lot of noise.
But as with scientific studies, i do not think that these stats are useless, and that they can be telling.
Try to see through the noise and find numbers that can tell us something.

Some may be doing randomized sampling tests, others may be testing only severe cases that end up in the hospital

That is exactly the reason why i am focussing on death/recovery rates, and not on infection rates or deaths.
This number tells us what the outcome is after testing.
It does not tell us about the virus, or its effects, but about the testing regime.
Assuming that the virus has a somewhat similar actual effect in each country, the outcomes in numbers tell us how much testing has been done.
For example:
If every single person on the planet would be tested daily, the stats for each country would eventually all look the same. (the shape of the statistical curves)
Similarly, once this pandemic is under control, the stats for each country will look similarly (again, the shapes / curves).
Eventually, the deaths/recovery rates will peter out similarly, as shown in the pic with the combined stats.
That means that the current deaths/recovery rates for each country tells us in what phase that country currently is.

From China we know that once that the stats have stabilized, the eventual death/recovery rate is about 3 or 4%.
That means that when the deaths/recovery rate for the USA is consistently higher than 1 (today it is 2.06), it means that more deaths are registered as an outcome than recoveries.
What does that mean?
It means that not even nearly all positive cases are detected.
If they would detect a significant part of the positive population, the deaths/recoveries rate would be way below 1, because in reality the overwhelming majority of people tested positive, eventually recovers.
So, a deaths/recovery rate of over 1 does not represent reality.
And what does that mean?
That by far most cases go undetected. (eg only testing of severe cases that end up in hospital, and the occasional celebrity)
Then probably more than 90% of cases go undetected.
And that means that the virus is spreading under the radar.
And that means that the situation will deteriorate severely, before getting better.

Therefore, the situation in the USA, UK and The Netherlands will deteriorate considerably before getting better. (unless lockdown is in effect)
The situation in Italy and Spain (and Germany) however, may now be in its worst phase already, assuming that lockdown will continue.

In conclusion:
The deaths/recoveries rate tells us whether the situation is more or less clear, or totally uncontrolled.
Only once the death/recoveries rate is way below 1, the worst may be over. (assuming lockdown)

[Aytundra]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mCa0JXEwDEk
https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavi ... d3d9cd99ca
Has anyone read about the research on COVID done by Tomas Pueyo?

He says that the data we get each day can actually project backwards to see when people actually got infected.
That the current numbers that we have on COVID cases each day in each country is not an accurate reflection of the true number of peoples infected with COVID.

[RRM]

That the current numbers that we have on COVID cases each day in each country is not an accurate reflection of the true number of peoples infected with COVID.

Indeed.
And the deaths/recovered rate clearly shows that

[Aytundra]

Okay, so I see the ABCD graph modal you (RRM) made, you glued pieces together. I took it apart (because I didn't get it).

I can see:
Germany in phase A.
Italy in phase C, previously in B.
Spain in phase C, previously in B.
China in phase D.

Here are the links (in case people can't find them (you have to click on the country names in the chart to get to each countries' page{took me 30 min to figure out})):
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... y/germany/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... try/italy/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... try/Spain/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... try/China/

Canada entering first few days of phase C. We started gradual lock down March 14, 2020.
(Where I am from) https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... ry/canada/
(we can't know if we are out of the woods until, after 14 days).

Now when I take a look at the overall COVID 19 graph that worldometers made:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavir ... rus-cases/
It shows phase D but a parabola that will enter phase B if the whole world is not careful. Because China made the phased D go into a plateau. But as a world we are testing more now, and adding to the chart, hence we can see as a world we are going to enter a phase B.
March 24, 2020 - Death Rate - 14.79%

[RRM]

Okay, so I see the ABCD graph modal you (RRM) made, you glued pieces together.

Exactly.
Germany never went through the volatile phase (with death rates topping recovery rates);
Germany went straight from phase A to C.
This may be due to their early and aggressive regimen of testing. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/eu ... story.html
At the same time, the UK initially had herd immunity in mind, the USA (Trump) attempted to bully the virus away, and the Netherlands tried a laissez faire regime (approaching the virus as if it is about weed consumption); hence their prolonged phase B.

will enter phase B if the whole world is not careful.

Im afraid that India will mess up also because their informal economy is huge, and most people simply cannot afford to stay home.
Africa might follow suit eventually.

[dime]

Thanks for clarifying RRM, those are very good points I didn't consider at all.

The lockdowns cannot go on forever so it's not clear how this will continue developing. Possibly for years we'll be stuck with masks, controlled shopping in the stores, minimal tourism, disinfecting everything, anxiety whenever someone sneezes, etc. Unless a vaccine/cure is figured out soon.