I spend a great deal of time in this post, so I hope you really read this panacea.
it's impossible for you to entertain the idea that there may be other complex causes you haven't identified yet creating your supposed probability effect?
I could ask you the exact the same question about newtons law. Maybe there is more complex cause, it seems that newtons law are really fundamental, but in reality they are just made up by a god who wants us to think we know something about fundamental laws in physics, while it's actually all bullshit. if God wanted he could break all these laws we think we have discovered, he can make up every law he wants... there is nothing fundemental true about this life, except the existence of God, who rules the universe.
If you try hard enough, you can always come up width a theory that god exist (or really a theory about whatever you want), which can't be disproven (yet) by scientific evidence.
You are using the same arguments, people tend to use to support that the concept of a god can't be disproven.
You can always use the argument that we don't know enough about science to be really sure.
However in science we tend not to believe theories which could be true,
but theories which are supported by empirical evidence, theories which predict in great detail the observations we make, theories which are logical consequence of some axioma's we assume are true.
Of course theories that God exist or that every event must be causally determined by a previous event, can be philosophical intresting, but it isn't called science as long as there is no empirical evidence supporting it.
you've already said yourself that the act of observing stops the 'probability' effect, so if it was true randomness, this probability effect, and not controlled by variables and causes, why does an observer control it and make it dissapear?
If I knew this, I wouldn't tell you before I've published a scientific article about this, because I surely would win a nobel price :p
If you want to learn more about this, this video is a good start:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DfPeprQ7oGc
The fact is the only way you can attempt to disprove determinism at the present time is to use a more sensitive scientific environment, going on the tiniest most unstable level we can, and then saying that what happens there must disprove our more controlled experiments and observations of reality.
Well determinism is disproven by the
Heisenberg uncertainty principle in 1927.
Einstein spent a great deal of his life to find gaps in this theory, but couldn't find any.
If you don't believe it you can try to disprove it, and if you are able to do so, you will surely win a nobel price (wow, imagine, we both have a nobel price
) and be known as an even greater genius than Einstein.
But as long as you haven't, me and the rest of scientific community will see this principle as a fact.
This unwillingness to wait for better understanding, and jumping to superstitious conclusions such as gods, randomness, ghosts, etc in areas we can't or couldn't in the past understand very well (quantum for randomness cosmos for gods) is a well known flaw in mankind's reasoning. Since our adventure began in the quest to understand reality, we've found that without exception things like tribal rituals, religions, ghosts, magic, and all other supernatural beliefs don't stand up the model of reality science gives us in the long run.
That theories about gods and ghost don't have much support in the scientific community is purely because there is no emperical evidence that support these theories.
It's not because gods, randomness, ghosts, etc. are by itself false theories... That is a dogma.
I've said this before, but it's logical fallacy to think that there is no room for concept as creationism and randomness in a theory just because many theories can be explained without these concepts.
As it comes to science, it's about if a theory is supported by empirical evidence, and if it's logical consequence of other theories/axioms etc.
If there was much emperical evidence god exist, I would believe it.
The flaw in this is that you assume you have accounted for all variables, and you hasted to conclude that something must be random
Is there any experiment where are 100% sure we have accounted for all variables ?
Maybe there are variables we can't even observe with our 5 senses... Also in the newtonian level we are not sure if we have accounted for all variables.
This conclusion about electrons is "just" the consensus in the scientific community.
I don't say it's the fundamental truth... There is not such a thing in science.
Basically you just found an environment to carry out tests that you can't control as well as test environments in the Newtonian level, and then hasted to assume your findings were more substantial than the better controlled tests.
I don't say they are more substantial, I only say they have more value regarding finding the truth of determinism, which you really can't deny.
To show that randomness is indeed supernatural is evidenced by the facts that everything we know of, even the double slit experiment, has a cause.
Logical fallacy.. conclusion is false, and even for your argument there is no evidence...
We can easily see that the probability effects' cause is a lack of the experiment being directly observed. This shows that at least at the core, this effect is determined, and caused by, some variable (observer).
Come on, study quantum mechanics first, before you talk about it in this way.. \
Basically we need to strive for better technology before assuming that our primitive tests in the quantum world disprove our advanced elaborate and well controlled and understood tests (and the variables surrounding them) of the cause and effect nature everywhere else.
They don't disprove them. They can go perfecly hand in hand.
Newton laws are deterministic, general relativity laws are deterministic, and quantum mechanics laws are probabilistic.
The whole universe, must therefore be something in between.
We can never predict exactly what will happen in the future, or what has happened in the past, we can only predict the chance that something will happen.
And the more we know, we can predict this chance in a greater detail, but we'll never know exactly what will happen. And therefore the universe isn't deterministic.